The first rumored Argentina line-up is out and Eduardo SALVIO is in it.

This is it. Argentina’s final match of these South American World Cup Qualifiers as they play away in Ecuador. It’s very, very simple. Win and you’re guaranteed at the very least a playoff match against New Zealand (with a chance to go as high as third place in the standings). Anything else and you’re pretty much not going to the 2018 World Cup (unless the stars align and every other result in South America goes your way). With about 48 hours until kick off, we have our first rumored line-up.

SALVIO and PEREZ to start

ROMERO; MERCADO, OTAMENDI, MASCHERANO, ACUNA; BIGLIA, Enzo PEREZ; SALVIO, MESSI, DI MARIA; BENEDETTO

Not too many changes from the 0-0 draw against Peru but Enzo PEREZ starts in place of Ever BANEGA and Eduardo SALVIO in for Papu GOMEZ. According to reports, Mauro ICARDI is still carrying a knock, hence why he is not starting. As for Paulo DYBALA, it appears that because he is still not in sync with MESSI (the two get in the way of each other), he will not be starting.

I’m not a fan of this line-up but if it gets us to Russia, I’m all in. A little side comment, I have a feeling (and this is just a gut feeling) that should Argentina not qualify for the 2018 World Cup, this could possibly be the last time we see Javier MASCHERANO and Lionel MESSI in an Argentina shirt. No concrete evidence, just a feeling.

For a third consecutive match, it’s another draw and Argentina are in trouble.

No Mauro ICARDI, no Paulo DYBALA, no Sergio AGUERO as it was Dario BENEDETTO up front with Lionel MESSI. The talk of La Bombonera hosting the match took center stage and while the atmosphere was there and the fans were (for the most part) into it, the goals still lacked.

Argentina created several chances, most of which came through Lionel MESSI. The number 10 set up BENENEDETTO (after the former received a pass from his Barcelona team mate Javier MASCHERANO) right before half time but the Boca man’s header went over the bar. Seconds into the second half, MASCHERANO knifed a ball in to MESSI who found BENEDETTO but his shoved was saved by the goalkeeper. MESSI pounced on the rebound but the ball hit the post.

Second half brought more mysery. After RIGONI came in for Angel DI MARIA at half time, Fernando GAGO was substituted on for Ever BANEGA. GAGO has to be up there as the most unluckiest of players when it comes to injuries because minutes after coming on, Fernando was substituted off due to injury. The ultimate substitute was Enzo PEREZ coming on for him.

The team huffed and puffed but no goals. Peru had their first chance and it was a dangerous one in the 91st minute as they had a free kick which was saved by Sergio ROMERO, who had nothing to do all match.

The current table leaves Argentina in 6th place, outside of a playoff spot. Here’s the table:

Here are the possible scenarios for Argentina, heading into their final World Cup Qualifier against Ecuador on Tuesday if they want to qualify:

An Argentina win against Ecuador would automatically guarantee them at the very least a playoff spot.
An Argentina draw would mean Paraguar would have to lose and there would have to be a winner between Peru and Colombia.
An Argentina loss would mean Peru has to lose by at least 2 goals and Paraguay would have to lose.

Those are the three scenarios. Should Argentina win, they guarantee at least a playoff match against New Zealand in November. Here are the matches for Tuesday:

It’s now do or die for Jorge SAMPAOLI and Argentina.

Later tonight, the Argentina national team will square off against Peru in a frustratingly crucial World Cup qualifying match. Argentina needs to win and so does Peru. In order to create a raucous environment for the opponent, La Albiceleste has decided to play this match at La Bombonera, the fabled Boca Juniors stadium that allegedly shakes from within its core.

With both Argentina and Peru on level terms when it comes to points and goal differential, both teams will be looking to come away with three points. Argentina hasn’t won a qualifier since March 23, while Peru is coming off three straight victories in qualifying matches. While both teams seem to be going in opposite directions, there are intriguing storylines within both teams from a purely soccer standpoint.

When going through these matchups, keep in mind that it’s clear I believe the true key to winning is Lionel MESSI. The entire team runs through him, as he’s the best player in the world, but Argentina can’t win with only one player. Therefore, it’s important to consider the ulterior matchups that could decide this game.

Javier MASCHERANO and Nicolas OTAMENDI vs. Paolo Guerrero

Head coach Jorge SAMPAOLI has opted to go with a line of four at the back, instead of his usual back three. His three-center back pairings haven’t looked all that comfortable or reassuring, so it’s a good idea to go a little bit safer by slotting in Marcos ACUNA at left back. But he will still shake things up a bit, slotting in Javier MASCHERANO in place of Federico FAZIO, who had started the last two qualifiers. It’s a bit of an odd decision considering Peru’s danger man, striker Paolo Guerrero, is tall and strong. FAZIO seemed like a better choice to mark him, but SAMPAOLI has elected to go with experience and a quicker player in such a huge game.

Standing 6-1, Guerrero is Peru’s all-time leading goalscorer, having broken the record on June 4 of last summer and adding five more goals since that date. One of the goals during that span came against La Albiceleste in the 2-2 tie in Lima in October of last year. Guerrero’s ability to hold up play with his size and strength, as well as his finishing prowess, makes him a scary proposition to defend. Just ask Ramiro FUNES MORI how tough it is. MASCHERANO and his center back partner, Nicolas OTAMENDI, will need to be on their A-game tonight. Any way of slowing down Guerrero, whether it’s fouling to frustrate him or just being more physical than usual, will be needed to keep Peru off the scoresheet.

Argentina Defense vs. Set Pieces

Maybe it’s just me, but every time Argentina concedes a foul in its own half, I get a gut-wrenching feeling deep down inside. Argentina isn’t inept at defending set pieces, but free and corner kicks are so dangerous and random that a goal can materialize out of nothing. In Argentina’s last match against Peru, La Albiceleste’s defense was not confident when defending set pieces. Time and time again, Peru got opportunities either through the air or on the ground after the initial set piece was taken.

With a tall striker in Guerrero on the pitch and Argentina sporting a relatively short team all throughout (OTAMENDI is the tallest outfield starter at 6-0), this is a game where Sergio ROMERO must be active and Argentina must be the first to meet balls in the air. A goal from a set piece is demoralizing and can sink a team, so Argentina must be wary of those opportunities presenting themselves for Peru.

Ever BANEGA and Lucas BIGLIA vs. Peru Midfield

For as long as we can remember, Argentina’s problem hasn’t been strikers missing chances or Sergio ROMERO being unsure of when to come off his goal line. The issue behind Argentina’s struggles during this round of World Cup qualifiers has been its midfield. Simply put, Argentina lacks creativity from its midfielders. Outside of his stellar passing, Ever BANEGA is too slow with the ball to threaten defenses. Lucas BIGLIA offers nearly nothing on offense, but can track back and be solid in defense. These pitfalls of both players forces MESSI to drop back and receive the ball deep in order to create on offense.

The same problem has persisted for years, and not since players like Juan Román RIQUELME and Esteban CAMBIASSO wore sky blue and white has Argentina had comfortability in midfield. Peru is very fortified in midfield, despite their penchant for attacking with regularity. SAMPAOLI was flirting with the possibility of starting Leandro PAREDES in this game, which would’ve solved some problems, in my opinion. PAREDES has the ability to recuperate the ball in his own defensive half and quickly push it forward to initiate offense. With BIGLIA playing instead, BANEGA will be tasked with dictating play from the middle, with BIGLIA taking on his usual defensive role. Both players need to be better than they have been in recent years for Argentina to make the World Cup.

Jorge SAMPAOLI had a lot to say about the Argentina team at the last press conference before the World Cup Qualifier on Thursday

The coach talked about the team, Lionel MESSI, Javier MASCHERANO, Mauro ICARDI’s injury and Dario BENEDETTO. Here’s what he had to say:

Jorge SAMPAOLI on the Argentina team

“Everyone has the same chances of being in the starting eleven. I’m very confident in these players. The support of the public always helps, especially in difficult moments like these. I’m convinced we’ll be at the World Cup. The players will give it their all to be at the World Cup.

“Peru’s coming in good form and will look to get a good result here. I imagine us playing with a lot of fury. Tomorrow, we’re giving it our all. My style is to always attack and to play in the opponent’s half. We have to defend the parts of the pitch where Peru is most strongest.

“We always look for partnerships that work on the pitch. Because there isn’t enough time to work a DYBALA-MESSI partnership, we have to go with something more concrete.

“MESSI is vital for us when the team is in front of goal. To build a structure for MESSI is crazy. He has no position. He has to play like he does at his club. MASCHERANO is an important figure of the Argentina national team. BENEDETTO can be the 9 for Argentina. ICARDI’s come here with a knock that has been hampering him since the Australia tour. Alejandro (GOMEZ) can bring some freshness to the team. He’s in great form.”

Confirmed Argentina eleven vs. Peru:

ROMERO; ACUNA, MASCHERANO, OTAMENDI, MERCADO; BANEGA, PAREDES; Papu GOMEZ, MESSI, DI MARIA; BENEDETTO

As we reported earlier, Jorge SAMPAOLI was thinking of going with Dario BENEDETTO up front instead of Mauro ICARDI. With SAMPAOLI stating that ICARDI is still carrying a knock from the Australian tour and mentioning Dario BENEDETTO the way he did, it’s fair to say that the Boca man will get the start.